Barclays Cuts India’s GDP Forecast To Zero Post Lockdown Extension

Barclays emerging markets research has cut India’s calendar year 2020 GDP forecast to 0.0 percent from 2.5 percent earlier.

Barclays has revised down its GDP growth forecast further to 0.0 percent for CY2020 (from 2.5 percent), and to 0.8 percent for FY20-21 from 3.5 percent earlier, Barclays said in a release.

The economic impact of the lockdown looks to be worse as India heads into a longer complete shutdown (until May 3) to combat the rising number of COVID-19 cases, as per the report.

“Combined with the disruption in several service sectors, we now estimate that the economic loss will be close to $234.4bn (8.1 percent of GDP), assuming that India will remain under a partial lockdown at least until the end of May.

This is much higher than the $120bn we had estimated earlier for roughly the same time period previously.
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a televised statement that the nationwide lock-down will be extended till 3 May.

India just completed a 21-days lockdown announced in late March.