IMF: India To Frow At 1.9 Percent In FY21, Recovery Seen In 2021-22


In its World Economic Outlook (WEO), published on Tuesday, the multi-lateral agency, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its projection of India’s economic growth to 1.9 per cent for the current financial year, the lowest since the 1991. This is a drastic reduction from earlier forecast a growth rate of 5.8 per cent.

This downward revision was done in light of the impact of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), and the subsequent nationwide lockdown imposed by the central government to check the spread of the virus.

Against the backdrop of how the global economy is projected to contract 3 per cent against a growth of 3.3 per cent expected earlier, these projections are not all that depressing. IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said, “The output loss associated with this health emergency and related containment measures likely dwarfs the losses that triggered the global financial crisis”.

India is expected to recover to 7.4 per cent growth in financial year 2021-22 (FY22), it is based on IMF’s baseline scenario, which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound.

For the FY20, IMF expected India’s economy to grow at a slower pace at 4.2 per cent, rather than the 5 per cent projected by the second advance estimates. IMF’s projection of 1.9 per cent growth rate for India in the current financial year is 0.4 percentage points higher than the lower range of forecasts by the World Bank, which expected India’s economy to grow in the range of 1.5-2.8 per cent in FY21, depending on when the lockdown is lifted.

The last time India’s expansion was lower was back in FY92 when it fell to 1.1 per cent, this was when economic liberalisation was unleashed. Other agencies have been conflicted on India’s future trajectory. While Nomura predicted the economy to contract by 0.5 per cent during 2020, the Asian Development Bank expected it to grow 4 per cent in FY21.

If projections come true, India, having lost the tag of the fastest growing large economy to China in FY20, will regain it in the current financial year, only to lose it again in FY21.

This is because China is projected to grow at 6.1 per cent in 2019, 1.2 per cent in 2020 and a whopping 9.2 per cent in 2021.

IMF projected emerging Asia — which includes China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam — to be the only region with growth in 2020 (1 per cent), which is over 5 percentage points below the previous decade’s average for the countries.